Full Metal Pantsuit

She fought hard. She fought long. But in the end, Hillary Clinton was simply unable to catch Barack Obama. Although her most ardent supporters will point accusatory fingers at the media and the DNC, the reality is that her campaign was flawed from the very beginning. At the outset, she suffered from the complacency and arrogance that accompanied her frontrunner status. Everyone assumed the nomination was Clinton's to lose. And lose it she did. Her greatest strength was supposed to be her experience. But Obama smartly picked up on voter disdain for eight years of Bush and Cheney, and delivered a promise of "change". His youth and inexperience suddenly became virtues. Hillary, on the other hand, was transformed into a representative of the old guard. While the Clinton campaign focussed on a "big state" strategy, Obama plugged away in smaller states, midwest states, and caucus states. His grassroots level fundraising was a resounding success. And by the time Hillary's team had figured all of this out, Super Tuesday was over, and Obama had a delegate lead he would never relinquish.

Now the only question is: will she be the veep?

Meet The World's Dumbest Democrats

Some supporters of Hillary Clinton's campaign have become so rabid in their pursuit of the nomination, that they have checked their brains at the door.

As members of the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws panel voted in favor of the measures, some supporters of Hillary Clinton's White House bid rose from their seats and began to shout “Don’t steal my vote!” and “Let’s go, McCain!”

These primaries have certainly strained unity within the Democratic Party. But anyone who would consider voting Republican if Hillary fails to secure the nomination is beyond stupid. What could their rationale possibly be? Do they intend to fight against perceived misogyny by voting for an old conservative white guy? Are they so blind in their ambition that they would rather see four more years of Republican rule than support Barack Obama? These are the kind of people that neither campaign needs - the kind of people who allow spite to triumph over reason.

This Horse Race Is Over

From Wonkette, perhaps the most fitting metaphor for Hillary's doomed (and increasingly annoying) campaign.

JESUS, WHERE TO BEGIN: Hillary Clinton's pick to win horse racing's Kentucky Derby, Eight Belles — the only female horse in the race — finished second, broke both front ankles, and subsequently was put to death on the track. The first place horse was "Big Brown." Go nuts.

Clinton's Tortured Logic: Part II

On seating the Michigan delegates.

Part I here.

Hillary-ous: The Tortured Logic of the Clinton Campaign

From Daily Kos:

Clinton's campaign has one premise -- victory at all costs. If that requires sundering the Democratic Party, so be it. She doesn't care. Therefore, there is no logic that applies. The popular vote only matters if it favors her. The pledged delegate lead only matters if it favors her. Michigan and Florida only matter if it favors her. States only matters if they vote for her. Groups and communities in this country only matters if they supports her. Super delegates only matter if they cast their lot with her.

The central problem is this. Barring a double-digit sweep of every remaining state, Clinton will finish the primaries behind in the pledged delegate count. Still, she has argued that she should remain in the race because the votes of the people matter.

"There are some folks saying we ought to stop these elections." "I don't think we believe that in America," she said. "The more people that have a chance to vote, the better it is for our democracy." - Hillary Clinton
at a recent campaign speech.

However, her senior campaign advisor Harold Ickes has confirmed that the campaign will try to woo super-delegates even if she loses the popular vote. So the campaign is at once trying to convince people that:

1. The primaries should go on because the popular vote matters.

2. If the popular vote favours Obama, it should be overturned by superdelegates.

To even a casual observer, this is an absurdly hypocritical position. But unfortunately for Clinton, it's the only one she has left. Personally, I think she should stick around for the upcoming primaries. Her campaign has already invested enough time and money. She will likely win Pennsylvania by a reasonable margin, but at the end of the day she will probably not be able to catch Obama in pledged delegates. Both Nancy Pelosi and Howard Dean have indicated that they want this race to be over by July 1st, the obvious implication being that whoever is behind in pledged delegates at that point should drop out. This would make the the most sense, and would avoid the discomfort of forcing superdelegates to be the ultimate arbiters of a supposedly democratic nomination process. It would likely also spare Clinton the task of explaining to people why their vote was so important in the spring, and less so in the fall. Again from Kos:

So we have a campaign that is losing by every metric imaginable. And now that campaign says that it doesn't care if she's losing by every metric imaginable. Her campaign will carry on regardless. No one can say that Clinton doesn't play to win. In some circumstances, that is admirable. The only problem is that she already lost.

To Anyone Who Still Thinks Hillary Can Win...

Wake up and smell the numbers. Based on current polling stats (and yes, I know these can change), Chris Bowers does some Ultimate Delegate Math. It's well worth the read. Basically, Bowers summarizes the 5 most likely scenarios going forward - including seating the FLA and MI delegates - and crunches the numbers...and they still don't look good for the former First Lady of Bosnian Sniper Fire (more on that later).

Those are some pretty big bullets to dodge, even for someone who claims to have dodged sniper fire in Bosnia. Turns out....ehhhh....not so much. From a speech she gave just this week:

"I remember landing under sniper fire. There was supposed to be some kind of a greeting ceremony at the airport, but instead we just ran with our heads down to get into the vehicles to get to our base."

--Hillary Clinton, speech at George Washington University, March 17, 2008.

Her travelling companions on this harrowing trip to hell? Sinbad, Sheryl Crow, and a 15 year old Chelsea Clinton. Sinbad himself has stated that the scariest part of the trip was deciding "where to eat". Michael Dobbs at the Washington Post does the rest of the fact-checking. And here's the video evidence of Clinton's Rambo-esque escape to the base on her arrival. Ready on Day One.

Vindictive God Crushes Huckabee's Hopes

Despite an organized prayer campaign by some of his supporters, a bewildered Mike Huckabee was finally forced to drop out of the Republican Presidential race tonight after losing big to John McCain in all 4 contested states.

Said God, "Yeah, I heard the prayers. But I was like, 'Dude...buy a calculator...do the math'. It ain't gonna happen".

So long Huck.

Meanwhile over on Democrat side, Hillary has stopped the bleeding with wins in Ohio and Rhode Island. At the time of this blog post, Vermont has gone to Obama and Texas is too close to call. It seems that no matter what happens in Texas tonight, Obama will maintain a lead in delegates. Nonetheless, Hillary has earned some much needed relief from the Obama machine, and has ensured that the drama will continue for at least another few weeks. Is this good for the Dems or bad? Some say that all publicity is good publicity, others that a bitter campaign will only create divisions within the party. Time will tell.

Random-Ass Irrelevant Newspaper Endorses Hillary!

In perhaps a telling sign of the way in which the Clinton campaign has been going, this "hot-off-the-press" release directly from her website:

If You Read One Thing Today: Vermont Woman Newspaper endorsed Hillary.

That's right - if you read only one thing today, make sure it's Vermont Woman. With a circulation of nearly 20,000, it's only slightly easier to find than the Okachobee High School Reporter.

Meanwhile, Obama's website is also touting his latest newspaper endorsement:

[Cincinnati] Enquirer endorses Obama on Democratic side

As I said, it's a reflection of the difficulties Hillary has had finding her footing in an increasingly desperate battle to stay competitive with an Obama campaign that has somehow taken on a life of its own. The rhetoric has been cranked up, and not always to Clinton's benefit. Witness this bizzarre press-release from Hillary's campign braintrust, brilliantly dissected by Wonkette:

Anything the Hillary Clinton camp says these days on teevee, to reporters, to anyone who is a human being, rapidly erodes the entire
campaign and her legacy. In their latest memo, which must have been written in crayon and targeted at the Cro-Magnon community, Team Clinton says that sinceObama has done everything correctly, any loss in the future would finalize his defeat.

To: Interested Parties

From: The Clinton Campaign

Date: Friday, February 29, 2008

RE: Obama Must-Wins

The media has anointed Barack Obama the presumptive nominee and he's playing the part. With an eleven state winning streak coming
out of February, Senator Obama is riding a surge of momentum that has enabledhim to pour unprecedented resources into Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont. The Obama campaign and its allies are outspending us two to one in paid media and have sent more staff into the March 4 states. In fact, when all is totaled, Senator Obama and his allies have outspent Senator Clinton by a margin of $18.4 million to $9.2 million on advertising in the four states that are voting next
Tuesday. Senator Obama has campaigned hard in these states. He has spent time meeting editorial boards, courting endorsers, holding rallies, and - of course - making speeches. If he cannot win all of these states with all this effort, there's a problem. Should Senator Obama fail to score decisive victories with all of the resources and effort he is bringing to bear, the message will be clear: Democrats, the majority of whom have favored Hillary in the primary contests held to date, have their doubts about Senator Obama and are having second thoughts about him as a prospective standard-bearer.

Translation: Barack Obama has won eleven straight contests, raised more money (because people like him), campaigned brilliantly and thoroughly in Texas and Ohio -- thereby marginalizing Clinton's long-held leads in those states -- won most endorsements and made legendary speeches at his overpacked rallies. Clinton has lost eleven straight contests, is consistently on the verge of bankruptcy, has run poor, indifferent campaigns in Texas and Ohio -- states she led by double digits only a couple of weeks ago -- lost every endorsement and cannot speak. Obama sure has dug his own grave with this "doing well in the election" strategy this election season.

And a new Zogby poll shows Obama now ahead in Texas, and closing a once double-digit gap in Ohio.

Texas

Clinton - 42%

Obama - 48%

Ohio

Clinton - 44%

Obama - 42%

Should be an interesting Tuesday...