Sunday, January 6, 2008

Conservative Conundrum

Uncle Steve won't be happy about this...
The Canadian Press Harris/Decima survey asked respondents to choose the kind of split they'd ideally like to see in a hypothetical Parliament of 100 seats. The results, on average, gave 36 seats to the Liberals, 31 to the Conservatives, 15 to the NDP, 10 to the Bloc Quebecois and eight to the Green party. Projecting those percentages to the actual House of Commons of 308 seats, the Liberals would end up with 111 seats rather than their current 96 and the Tories would have 95 instead of their present 126.
One could certainly argue that these numbers should be sobering for both the Liberals and the Conservatives. But Stephen Harper would be well advised to keep in mind that the Liberals have been largely under the Conservative boot this past year. They have had precious little in the way of positive media coverage, and have been at the mercy of a well-funded CPC attack machine. And yet Canadians still feel uncomfortable handing the reins of power to the Conservatives. Perhaps instead of perpetually casting darts at others, Harper should direct his gaze inward, and contemplate why his tactics continue to fail so miserably.


Anonymous said...

It would appear to me with these latest stories and polls that the liberal press are in full damage control trying to sell Canadians on another minority government. I think that they realize that the Liberals have a snowballs chance in hell of winning the next election and are attempting to coerce the public into voting strategically.

I think come election time, the press and the Liberals will be disappointed in the result.

I predict a firm Conservative majority.

Red Canuck said...

Anaon - You may be right, but short of nonstop attack ads, I get the distinct impression that the Conservatives have run out of things to sell.

The "Dion is not a leader" meme is getting old quick. And their less than impressive responses to issues such as global warming, the crisis in Pakistan, and the Mulroney mess have shown inherent weaknesses in their ability to govern under any sort of unexpected pressure.

Anyways, polls are what they are. But to me, the trends don't look promising for Steve, if he's looking for a majority.